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submitted by Philemond22 to u/Philemond22 [link] [comments]

Looking back 18 months.

I was going through old emails today and came across this one I sent out to family on January 4, 2018. It was a reflection on the 2017 crypto bull market and where I saw it heading, as well as some general advice on crypto, investment, and being safe about how you handle yourself in cryptoland.
I feel that we are on the cusp of a new bull market right now, so I thought that I would put this out for at least a few people to see *before* the next bull run, not after. While the details have changed, I don't see a thing in this email that I fundamentally wouldn't say again, although I'd also probably insist that people get a Yubikey and use that for all 2FA where it is supported.
Happy reading, and sorry for some of the formatting weirdness -- I cleaned it up pretty well from the original email formatting, but I love lists and indents and Reddit has limitations... :-/
Also, don't laught at my token picks from January 2018! It was a long time ago and (luckliy) I took my own advice about moving a bunch into USD shortly after I sent this. I didn't hit the top, and I came back in too early in the summer of 2018, but I got lucky in many respects.
----------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan-4, 2018
Hey all!
I woke up this morning to ETH at a solid $1000 and decided to put some thoughts together on what I think crypto has done and what I think it will do. *******, if you could share this to your kids I’d appreciate it -- I don’t have e-mail addresses, and it’s a bit unwieldy for FB Messenger… Hopefully they’ll at least find it thought-provoking. If not, they can use it as further evidence that I’m a nutjob. 😉
Some history before I head into the future.
I first mined some BTC in 2011 or 2012 (Can’t remember exactly, but it was around the Christmas holidays when I started because I had time off from work to get it set up and running.) I kept it up through the start of summer in 2012, but stopped because it made my PC run hot and as it was no longer winter, ********** didn’t appreciate the sound of the fans blowing that hot air into the room any more. I’ve always said that the first BTC I mined was at $1, but looking back at it now, that’s not true – It was around $2. Here’s a link to BTC price history.
In the summer of 2013 I got a new PC and moved my programs and files over before scrapping the old one. I hadn’t touched my BTC mining folder for a year then, and I didn’t even think about salvaging those wallet files. They are now gone forever, including the 9-10BTC that were in them. While I can intellectually justify the loss, it was sloppy and underlines a key thing about cryptocurrency that I believe will limit its widespread adoption by the general public until it is addressed and solved: In cryptoland, you are your own bank, and if you lose your password or account number, there is no person or organization that can help you reset it so that you can get access back. Your money is gone forever.
On April 12, 2014 I bought my first BTC through Coinbase. BTC had spiked to $1000 and been in the news, at least in Japan. This made me remember my old wallet and freak out for a couple of months trying to find it and reclaim the coins. I then FOMO’d (Fear Of Missing Out”) and bought $100 worth of BTC. I was actually very lucky in my timing and bought at around $430. Even so, except for a brief 50% swing up almost immediately afterwards that made me check prices 5 times a day, BTC fell below my purchase price by the end of September and I didn’t get back to even until the end of 2015.
In May 2015 I bought my first ETH at around $1. I sent some guy on bitcointalk ~$100 worth of BTC and he sent me 100 ETH – all on trust because the amounts were small and this was a small group of people. BTC was down in the $250 range at that point, so I had lost 30-40% of my initial investment. This was of the $100 invested, so not that much in real terms, but huge in percentages. It also meant that I had to buy another $100 of BTC on Coinbase to send to this guy. A few months after I purchased my ETH, BTC had doubled and ETH had gone down to $0.50, halving the value of my ETH holdings. I was even on the first BTC purchase finally, but was now down 50% on the ETH I had bought.
The good news was that this made me start to look at things more seriously. Where I had skimmed white papers and gotten a superficial understanding of the technology before FOMO’ing, I started to act as an investor, not a speculator. Let me define how I see those two different types of activity:
So what has been my experience as an investor? After sitting out the rest of 2015 because I needed to understand the market better, I bought into ETH quite heavily, with my initial big purchases being in March-April of 2016. Those purchases were in the $11-$14 range. ETH, of course, dropped immediately to under $10, then came back and bounced around my purchase range for a while until December of 2016, when I purchased a lot more at around $8.
I also purchased my first ICO in August of 2016, HEAT. I bought 25ETH worth. Those tokens are now worth about half of their ICO price, so about 12.5ETH or $12500 instead of the $25000 they would be worth if I had just kept ETH. There are some other things with HEAT that mean I’ve done quite a bit better than those numbers would suggest, but the fact is that the single best thing I could have done is to hold ETH and not spend the effort/time/cost of working with HEAT. That holds true for about every top-25 token on the market when compared to ETH. It certainly holds true for the many, many tokens I tried to trade in Q1-Q2 of 2017. In almost every single case I would have done better and slept better had I just held ETH instead of trying to be smarter than Mr. Market.
But, I made money on all of them except one because the crypto market went up more in USD terms than any individual coin went down in ETH or BTC terms. This underlines something that I read somewhere and that I take to heart: A rising market makes everyone seem like a genius. A monkey throwing darts at a list of the top 100 cryptocurrencies last year would have doubled his money. Here’s a chart from September that shows 2017 year-to-date returns for the top 10 cryptocurrencies, and all of them went up a *lot* more between then and December. A monkey throwing darts at this list there would have quintupled his money.
When evaluating performance, then, you have to beat the monkey, and preferably you should try to beat a Wall Street monkey. I couldn’t, so I stopped trying around July 2017. My benchmark was the BLX, a DAA (Digital Asset Array – think fund like a Fidelity fund) created by ICONOMI. I wasn’t even close to beating the BLX returns, so I did several things.
  1. I went from holding about 25 different tokens to holding 10 now. More on that in a bit.
  2. I used those funds to buy ETH and BLX. ETH has done crazy-good since then and BLX has beaten BTC handily, although it hasn’t done as well as ETH.
  3. I used some of those funds to set up an arbitrage operation.
The arbitrage operation is why I kept the 11 tokens that I have now. All but a couple are used in an ETH/token pair for arbitrage, and each one of them except for one special case is part of BLX. Why did I do that? I did that because ICONOMI did a better job of picking long-term holds than I did, and in arbitrage the only speculative thing you must do is pick the pairs to trade. My pairs are (No particular order):
I also hold PLU, PLBT, and ART. These two are multi-year holds for me. I have not purchased BTC once since my initial $200, except for a few cases where BTC was the only way to go to/from an altcoin that didn’t trade against ETH yet. Right now I hold about the same 0.3BTC that I held after my first $100 purchase, so I don’t really count it.
Looking forward to this year, I am positioning myself as follows:
Looking at my notes, I have two other things that I wanted to work into this email that I didn’t get to, so here they are:
  1. Just like with free apps and other software, if you are getting something of value and you didn’t pay anything for it, you need to ask why this is. With apps, the phrase is “If you didn’t pay for the product, you are the product”, and this works for things such as pump groups, tips, and even technical analysis. Here’s how I see it.
    1. People don’t give tips on stocks or crypto that they don’t already own that stock or token. Why would they, since if they convince anyone to buy it, the price only goes up as a result, making it more expensive for them to buy in? Sure, you will have friends and family that may do this, but people in a crypto club, your local cryptocurrency meetup, or online are generally not your friends. They are there to make money, and if they can get you to help them make money, they will do it. Pump groups are the worst of these, and no matter how enticing it may look, stay as far away as possible from these scams. I even go so far as to report them when I see them advertise on FB or Twitter, because they are violating the terms of use.
    2. Technical analysis (TA) is something that has been argued about for longer than I’ve been alive, but I think that it falls into the same boat. In short, TA argues that there are patterns in trading that can be read and acted upon to signal when one must buy or sell. It has been used forever in the stock and foreign exchange markets, and people use it in crypto as well. Let’s break down these assumptions a bit.
i. First, if crypto were like the stock or forex markets we’d all be happy with 5-7% gains per year rather than easily seeing that in a day. For TA to work the same way in crypto as it does in stocks and foreign exchange, the signals would have to be *much* stronger and faster-reacting than they work in the traditional market, but people use them in exactly the same way.
ii. Another area where crypto is very different than the stock and forex markets centers around market efficiency theory. This theory says that markets are efficient and that the price reflects all the available information at any given time. This is why gold in New York is similar in price to gold in London or Shanghai, and why arbitrage margins are easily <0.1% in those markets compared to cryptoland where I can easily get 10x that. Crypto simply has too much speculation and not enough professional traders in it yet to operate as an efficient market. That fundamentally changes the way that the market behaves and should make any TA patterns from traditional markets irrelevant in crypto.
iii. There are services, both free and paid that claim to put out signals based on TA for when one should buy and sell. If you think for even a second that they are not front-running (Placing orders ahead of yours to profit.) you and the other people using the service, you’re naïve.
iv. Likewise, if you don’t think that there are people that have but together computerized systems to get ahead of people doing manual TA, you’re naïve. The guys that I have programming my arbitrage bots have offered to build me a TA bot and set up a service to sell signals once our position is taken. I said no, but I am sure that they will do it themselves or sell that to someone else. Basically they look at TA as a tip machine where when a certain pattern is seen, people act on that “tip”. They use software to see that “tip” faster and take a position on it so that when slower participants come in they either have to sell lower or buy higher than the TA bot did. Remember, if you are getting a tip for free, you’re the product. In TA I see a system when people are all acting on free preset “tips” and getting played by the more sophisticated market participants. Again, you have to beat that Wall Street monkey.
  1. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus, think about it this way: If TA was real, Wall Street would have figured it out decades ago and we would have TA funds that would be beating the market. We don’t.
  2. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus and that its real and well, proven, then you must think that all smart traders use them. Now follow that logic forward and think about what would happen if every smart trader pushing big money followed TA. The signals would only last for a split second and would then be overwhelmed by people acting on them, making them impossible to leverage. This is essentially what the efficient market theory postulates for all information, including TA.
OK, the one last item. Read this weekly newsletter – You can sign up at the bottom. It is free, so they’re selling something, right? 😉 From what I can tell, though, Evan is a straight-up guy who posts links and almost zero editorial comments.
Happy 2018.
submitted by uetani to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

USI Tech

I wrote this to a friend who attempted to recruit me into USI Tech.
heres my opinion
USI Tech has a lot of similarities with very problematic business models.
its ownership has problematic connections; it operates a multilevel marketing model that relies on the recruitment of new investors; i havent seen convincing proof that their software truly works the way they say it works.
ive found a lot of cloak and dagger having done a couple weeks of research on the company and my conclusion is that
for me personally there are too may red flags to invest. ive consumed a lot of material on the subject of their legitimacy from both sides of the argument. this is a complex question and it has a complex answer.
the objective truth of whether or not the company is a scam will be regarded as a matter of opinion until history reveals itself; as of right now you believe they are an honest enterprise, and i disagree. that is totally fine, we are both friends and we respect eachothers opinions and we want the best for one another; either of us could be wrong and it won't affect our friendship.
for me, the decision to forego the investment came from these red flags:
1.) Who. its hard to get an official document of exactly who owns the company however these are a few names that come up as people who have either seemed to own it or have at one point promoted it, all of which cast shade over themselves: Mike Kiefer, Ralf Gold, Joao Severino, Charles Scoville.
USI Tech is registered in Dubai and while that is not problematic on its own, there are devastating amounts of internet ponzis registered or operating out of Dubai, specifically foreign exchange trading scams.
2.) How. multilevel marketing. i despise MLM, i believe it is a predatory recruitment method that exploits people's hope and greed. while pyramid schemes can make money, very very very very very often the actual money making mechanism is the recruitment of new members and their subsequent purchase investments. even with a really shitty product you can make this go far so long as the hype is strong enough to feed recruitment.
my family was ruined when i was ten after my parents claimed bankrupcy over a zealous series of investments in Melaluca, an organic lotions MLM. this will always affect my bias.
3.) What. USI Tech's bitcoin product, what is it? do they offer a crypto trading software that works like their forex robot? as far as i can tell, there is no direct evidence of the actual trades that their software allegedyly engages in. my bottom line is here i can't come up with any evidence of a tangible product that truly does what they say it does which is problematic because they are offering a ROI which is apparently based on this robot's performance. moreover, if USI Tech is attempting some clever loophole trickery to avoid having registered with the SEC for selling securities, i have no idea what it is and that is alarming.
finally, 4.) Why. ponzi. if you do not know how a ponzi scheme works on a technical level, learn it, it is very simple. a multilevel marketing company out of Dubai that offers a cloaked software product raises supreme concern for me. their shelflife looks to have been extended by having added an anonymous and unregulated currency into the mix.
i don't doubt that at some level they are trying to make honest money, maybe that is what their mining operation is about. if they start offering cloud mining, that will be another red flag.
money can be made in a ponzi, i just believe its dishonest money. the operative is to discontinue reinvestment at a safe time. i cant put my btc in it because i believe it will contribute to the propagation of the business, which i believe to be malevolent.
__
for me, the magic is in bitcoin. not a robot that trades bitcoin. not a robot that trades in fiat markets.
i dont even speculate in arbitrage because the magic isnt even in the investment opportunity.
if what they say is true, and there is a robot that can consistently pull value out of crypto markets, then that is an innovative and lucrative achievement, but i don't buy it. if they use a robot to pull value out of forex, then my investment is directly participating in that system of currency that i don't trust.
you're a good dude, and obviously i have no hard feelings about your involvement, you will make money in it even which is great. like i said you can still make money in it and of course its tempting to invest so i might even buy a pack depending on how greedy i get, but my opinion isn't likely to change about the nature of USI Tech until i learn more.
submitted by beartowitness to Scams [link] [comments]

Forex Tips - 4 Steps to Forex Hedging

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submitted by harryemily1 to u/harryemily1 [link] [comments]

Cryptocurrency Trading Simplified with Money Trade Coin Group

The Money Trade Coin Group has initiated a training course program for cryptocurrency trading. Money Trade Coin will provide physical courses in countries such as UAE, Thailand, and Switzerland from May 15th Onwards. The courses will be of three days span long in each country and will teach cryptocurrency users more than just crypto trading but also divulge into concepts such as futures and derivatives in the FOREX market.
Join the Trading Course No matter whether you are an amateur, an accomplished crypto trader, or someone willing to learn new skills in cryptocurrency, this physical course will benefit you greatly as it is created to expand knowledge on the subject. Using this training course crypto holders will be able to invest wisely in a very competitive platform in order to make profits and minimize any risks.
What You Will Learn With the Crypto Training Course • How cryptocurrencies work and how to trade them • Profits and loss with cryptocurrencies • Tactics for effective cryptocurrency trading • An extensive tour of the market • What are Bitcoin and altcoins • Which coins you should buy and sell • How to store your coins • All about trading on the platform • Crypto exchanges and which ones you should use • Trading concepts and tools • Maximizing profit and risk management • What are the exact entry points, targets, and stop loss points • What support and resistance are in trading • How much research to do before starting your trading
How do we stand out?
With Money trade Coin Group you have ensured the best crypto training through our program and it is designed to cover all important aspects of cryptocurrency investment and trading on the platform. Our trainers and experienced traders have been involved in crypto trading for many years and hold impressive qualifications. Your progress throughout the course will be monitored and feedback will tell you where your strengths and weaknesses lie.
You will not only know how to trade but also understand the concepts behind crypto trading, the entire market and exchange systems. You will be able to trust your own decisions and strategies instead of relying on news pages or forums for your information which may be outdated or incorrect. Learning the ropes can help in setting fixed targets for your trade, buying and selling, stop loss and more.
Additionally, our course features futures and derivatives on the Foreign Exchange platform apart from MT4 software. By learning about the types of contracts you can buy and sell into, arbitrage, and hedging, you can minimize any risks you may come across trading in foreign currencies.
submitted by moneytradecoin to u/moneytradecoin [link] [comments]

CS Senior: having difficulty staying motivated, unsure if my skill set will land me a job.

Little background: I am graduating from well known CUNY engineering school in June. I have a decent GPA (3.1 cumm , 3.3 in major), long story short was hit with a few very difficult professors in the last year which took a toll on my GPA, I say decent in that I know it could've been a point or or two higher. I don't think my GPA will hinder my ability to get a job ,so I will leave that out of the equation. I also have intern experience with a large telecom company doing network analysis. I have fairly good analytical skills and good at working with teams (I actually prefer working with other and bouncing ideas around). I have a strong interest in automotive, and would like to see where that could go for me, but I don't live in the region of automotive manufacturers and would prefer to stay home my first year or two. I am mainly taking interest into big data/ data science because of a course I am currently taking in Big Data. Aside from that I have started my job search fairly late, have gotten two legitimate interviews which I basically bombed both because I wasn't prepared. Although I know I bombed them I know what I did wrong and have taken them as learning experiences. Throughout my college career I have been a highly motivated student , but the last few months have been a huge decline from how I previously treated responsibilities. With that I know how to work and buckle down and get what I need to done.
My Dilemma now is I feel like the job search is insanely difficult and is basically a roll of a dice, I feel like websites like Linkedin and Indeed are extremely overwhelming. It feels almost impossible to sift through the information and find jobs which I feel like I have a shot at being a match for. I typically search with keywords like software dev/engineer and python with the entry-level filter on. the majority of what is coming up is 3-5 year experience and I would say between 60-70% of jobs are looking for people that know some web development (which I have no experience in) . With this it's becoming fairly demotivating. So now I'm exploring ideas of gaining some type of big data certification and/or doing a coding boot camp primary with the goals of learning full-stack development.
Any suggestions of comments are welcome.
Courses (left out a lot but these are course from the last year and a half)
Numerical Issues In Scientific Computing Computer Security Database Systems Big Data Mang. and Analysis Programming Language Paradigms Artificial Intelligence Operating Systems Computer Graphics
● Languages & Libraries: C++, C, Java, Python, Scheme/LISP, MySql, R, AWK, x86 Assembly. ● Software & Frameworks: GitHub, UNIX, OpenGL, Spark, Microsoft Office. ● Project Management, Research/Analytical Skills, Leadership, Detail-Oriented, Team Player
Fin-Tech Hackathon ● Developed an AI security application that learns to identify emails which violate laws, regulations, or policies. ● Allows legal staff to generate a privileged email list to prevent specified email communications. ● Implemented using Python with Natural Language Processing (NLTK), Django and Heroku Tool kit.
forex arbitrage with streams ● Used to streams in a functional programming application, which evaluates forex arbitrage opportunities. ● Implemented using Scheme.
PyFlight Finder ● Developed a GUI based flight finding application to optimize fares and scheduling. ● Implemented using Python and Google Flights QPX Express API.
Network intern May 2016 – August 2016 ● Compared and contrasted the performance of various classes of traffic on the IP backbone. ● Analyzed packet loss data on core, aggregation, and core to edge links to determine quality of service. ● Created and executed AWK scripts to parse and analyze packet loss. ● Supported network automation and testing using Automation software by creating and executing test cases on the network.
submitted by jut_taro to cscareerquestions [link] [comments]

08-14 03:22 - 'i've got nothing else better to do, i'm wicked smart, i've learned the fundamentals of forex and technical analysis, and i've been researching how other bots do it. / I think its worth a try, and i'm willing to gamble $100 ove...' by /u/btcnoob69 removed from /r/Bitcoin within 4-14min

'''
i've got nothing else better to do, i'm wicked smart, i've learned the fundamentals of forex and technical analysis, and i've been researching how other bots do it.
I think its worth a try, and i'm willing to gamble $100 over and over repeatedly until I find an algorithm/group of them that works consistently and generates a small profit. as far as stop loss orders, covering my ass was the first thing I researched...
ive got an app pulling in pricing data for bitmex, kraken, poloniex and bitfinex into a sql database and I have code that will generate simple moving averages from the data just like the charts on tradingview.
I have code that will give me awesome oscillator values from the data which also match up perfectly with the charts. I am working on calculating upper and lower limits of bollinger bands as well as relative strength index (RSI). Rsi seems pretty useless but bollinger band values, awesome oscillator values and 9/21 period simple moving averages seem to indicate reversals with striking regularity and with good accuracy.
Since I am receiving data from 4 different exchanges in real time (every 6 seconds), I can average them out and get a true market consensus from the last 6, 12, 24 seconds, whatever and eliminate one-off spikes in prices and get a nice smooth average of the 4 exchanges. the results will be weighted according to volume with the biggest exchanges (bitfinex, bitmex) being more important than the puny ones (kraken) because it makes sense the largest ones are the ones who move the market and the little ones follow along. as I write more code I can plug in more exchanges and get even higher quality data in real time and really have my finger on btc's pulse.
i'm pretty close to putting it all together into an autonomous system that trades by itself. once that is done I will start working on arbitrage and integrate it into the software so I can run bots on all the exchanges and make lightening fast deals using price differentials.
Ill probably get rekt the first few tries but ive got lots of ideas about different models from simple to complex to try. i'm also stubborn and persistent so eventually I'll get there.
Don't worry about me, this is just a hobby, I already have all the money I need to live on. But if I can get it to work, it will be even better.
'''
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Go1dfish undelete link
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Author: btcnoob69
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Forex Arbitrage Forex Arbitraj

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